Trade tensions and a reversal in the artificial intelligence (AI) boom are among the main risks to global economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
Its comments came in its latest world economic outlook, where it described the global economy as “steady”, with growth expected to remain “resilient” this year.
The IMF’s forecast was produced ahead of Donald Trump’s threat at the weekend to impose tariffs on eight European countries opposed to his proposed takeover of Greenland.
The fund also said the independence of central banks was “paramount” for global economic stability and growth.
The economic watchdog said global growth was projected to reach 3.3% this year – an increase from its previous forecast of 3.1% – before slowing slightly to 3.2% in 2027.
IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas said, “We have a picture of a global economy that is growing at – it’s not outsized growth rates but it’s quite resilient, quite robust.
“In a sense the global economy has been shaking off the trade disruptions of 2025, and it’s coming out ahead of what we were expecting.”
He said while the effects of Trumps’ tariffs has been “definitely to slow down global activity”, he added that there “have been other things that have been more than offsetting”.
The IMF’s report says the global economy has been helped by “tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI)”.
However, it said risks to the global outlook “remain tilted to the downside”, warning that if expectations about AI growth turn out to be overly optimistic an abrupt market correction could be triggered.
Even a relatively mild market correction could have an impact, Gourinchas said, given how much share price gains have contributed to wealth gains in recent years. Other risks are emerging as firms increasingly take on debt to make AI investments.
“It doesn’t take as much of a market reaction to have an impact on people’s wealth relative to their income so that they start cutting consumption, [businesses start] changing their investment plans etc, so there could be some vulnerability there,” he said.
As well as an end to the AI boom, another possible risk highlighted by the IMF was that “trade tensions could flare up, prolonging uncertainty and weighing more heavily on activity”.
“Domestic political tensions or geopolitical tensions could erupt, introducing new layers of uncertainty and disrupting the global economy through their impact on financial markets, supply chains, and commodity prices.”