Global oil prices are predicted to remain in the “low $100s” for much of this year even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as early as next month, investment bank JP Morgan has suggested.
The bank said on Monday supplies of oil in the region would not return to normal service quickly.
The analysis comes as oil prices rose following President Donald Trump’s remarks that Iran’s response to US proposals to end the war was “totally unacceptable”.
Tehran sent its response via Pakistan, which has served as a mediator between the two sides, calling for an immediate end to the conflict and guarantees of no further US-Israeli attacks on Iran, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.
International oil benchmark Brent rose by more than 4% to $105.94 (£77.74) a barrel at one point before falling back to around $105.
The key Strait of Hormuz waterway has been effectively shut since shortly after the war started on 28 February, severely disrupting global supplies of oil and gas.
Responding to Tehran’s terms, Trump posted on social media: “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it – TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.”
Washington’s terms had included restoration of free transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension on Iranian nuclear enrichment, according to US news outlet Axios.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said the war with Iran will not be over until its enriched uranium stockpiles are “taken out”.
A ceasefire announced in early April to allow time for peace talks has been mostly observed, despite occasional exchanges of fire.
On 21st April, Trump extended the truce indefinitely to give Iran time to present a “unified proposal”.
Energy prices have swung wildly since the start of the conflict, while Brent crude has risen back above $100 a barrel since the ceasefire came into effect on 8 April.
In a note on Monday, JP Morgan said its analysis “now suggests that oil prices should remain in the low $100s for most of the rest of this year, averaging $97 for 2026 as a whole”.
“Crucially, the analysis does not point to a quick normalization once the Strait reopens,” it added, saying the bottleneck would likely shift from the “Strait itself to tanker availability, refinery ramp-ups and wider logistical constraints”.